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November 2, 2008
1:12PM

**Daylight Savings Time is now back to Standard time in New York which means the Philippines is now 13 hours ahead instead of the previous 12 hours. The times mentioned in all my forecasts are Philippine / China / Singapore time. For the new international members, please adjust your computer clock to GMT+8 so that you can follow my forecasts and signals.**

Jobs and Interest Rates are the theme for this week. Marquee events will be Australian, Euro and UK Interest rate decisions and US Non-Farm payroll reports. On the political front, the US elections will also affect the financial world this week. All events this week is expected to be bearish for all currencies including a slight dip in the USD. The only question is when should we start shorting them.

So here’s what I’m cooking for this week:

Monday

Get ready to sell GBP/USD

At 5:30PM UK PMI Manufacturing data comes out which is anticipated to be bearish and will give traders additional reason to short the pound before the rate announcement is made on Nov 6, 2008 Should there be a set up on the Daily charts and hourly charts, I’ll be shorting this pair anytime between 8 to 11AM Monday morning.

Get ready to sell USD/JPY

Then at 11PM US ISM data comes out and is expected to drop further as Chicago PMI also dropped. This will again increase the chances of a huge drop in employment numbers of the US when Non-Farm payrolls come out on Friday, Nov 7.  Should there be a set up on the Daily and hourly charts, I’ll be shorting this pair anytime between 11AM to 5PM Monday.

Neutral on AUD/USD

I would advise to stay away from trading AUD/USD as early Monday morning, Retail sales comes out then followed the next day by the interest rate decision which is expected to be cut by 0.5% basis points. Although the announcement are extremely bearish, there is not enough time to enter properly.

Tuesday

Get ready to sell EUR/USD

At 6PM Eur PPI data comes out. With Oil prices dropping, it is unlikely that this data will be good. Also, this will be the first glimpse of traders to see justification of a lowering of Euro interest rates come Nov 6, 2008. Should there be a set up on the Daily and hourly charts, I’ll be shorting this pair anytime between Monday evening to around 11AM Tuesday Morning.

Get ready to sell USD/JPY

US Factory orders comes out at 11PM Tuesday which many analysts expect to drop significantly. Slowing growth will be seen the most in this report. Now although the US is up against the Majors, the JPY is still more bullish than the USD and this will be a likely candidate to short for this news data. Should there be a set up on the Daily and hourly charts, I’ll be shorting this pair anytime between Monday evening to around 11AM Tuesday Morning.

Get ready to sell EUR/CHF

Whenever the Euro and the USD are likely to go down, EUR/CHF will also go down, this is a proven phenomenon due to currency correlations and the domino effect between the EUR and the USD. Should there be a set up on the Daily and hourly charts anytime between Monday evening to around 11 AM Tuesday, I’ll be shorting this pair as well.

Wednesday

Get ready to sell EUR/USD

At 6PM Wednesday evening, eurozone retail sales comes out and is expected to be very bearish. This is another opportunity to short the EUR/USD. If I have not yet gotten out of the Short EUR/USD trade the day before, I will short the pair again should there be a set up on the hourly charts between 8AM to 11AM Wednesday.

Get ready to sell NZD/USD

New Zealand change in employment reports come out very early on Thursday so, Wednesday evening for us would be the timing window to get in. Should there be a set-up on the Dailies and hourlies anytime Wednesday, I’ll most probably take the short trade.

Thursday & Friday

I would recommend to be out of the markets at this time as UK and Euro rate decisions will lead to huge volatility, Friday, the infamous Non-farm payroll report comes out which you do not want to be in the middle of.

Well that’s it for the week, should anything change, I will update this post.

These are my views, I may be wrong, please follow my recommendations at your own risk.

FYI – The next Master of the Minimum Contest will be November 15 to December 15 to give time for all members to have at least US$300 in their accounts. This will be the last contest for the year so hurry and join now!!!

Monsterpips to All!
-Mark

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