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November 9, 2008
4:34PM GMT+8 (All time stamps in this post are GMT+8 or China Time, unless otherwise specified)

Jobs and the expected layoffs in weeks to come continue to be the focus in the markets. Fear amongst workers in the industrial and housing sector continue. Now the US auto industry is trying to get concessions for a bailout as the contention is 1 out of every 10 jobs in America are from the auto industry. Will we see something from this? Everything is still up in the air but one thing remains certain, Job losses will get worse before it gets better. Markets will continue the sell off and the USD will continue to move up as the move to shore up cash reserves is still on going.

Looking at the weekly charts, no reversal signals are yet seen on the major pairings. Fundamentally though, there is really no good news out there at the moment to force investors to come back to the markets in full force. The Currency markets will be in a state of sideways / range trading for this week as there will be bad news (but almost expected news) to come. The long term trend bias however for the major currencies are: USD – up, JPY – up, EUR – down, GBP- down, AUD – down, NZD – down, CHF – down

So here’re the pairs that I’m cooking this week

Monday

Get ready to Sell GBP/USD

At 5:30PM UK PPI comes out which is expected to show declines in prices showing a slow down in inflation. Seeing that UK interest rates have a lot more room to cut compared to the US. The currency market will look at this report to jump start another sell off for the once mighty pound.
Timing Window: Get ready to short this pair anytime between 8 AM to 11AM Monday morning. That translates to 7PM to 10PM Sunday Evening US Eastern Standard Time. Should a technical set-up present itself on the Daily / hourly charts.

Tuesday

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD

At 6:00PM German and Euro ZEW survey comes out which should show a more pessimistic business sentiment for a few more weeks to come. Like the GBP, Euro interest rates have more room to cut compared to the US. Another leg down is expected to sell off the Euro in exchange for the USD again.
Timing Window: Get ready to short this pair anytime between 8AM to 11AM Tuesday Morning. That translates to 7PM to 10PM Monday Evening US Eastern Standard Time. Should a technical set-up present itself on the Daily / hourly charts.


Wednesday

Get ready to Sell GBP/USD

At 5:30PM Jobless claims for the UK comes out which is again going to be bearish.
Timing Window: Get ready to short this pair anytime between 8AM to 11AM Wednesday morning. 7PM to 10PM Tuesday Evening US Eastern Standard Time Should a technical set up present itself on the Daily / hourly charts.

Thursday

Get ready to Sell NZD/USD

At 5:45AM New Zealand Retail Sales comes out which is expected to be much worse than anticipated. Forcing another sell-off for the Kiwi Dollar.
Timing Window: Get ready to short this pair anytime between  Wed10PM to Thursday 3AM. Wed 9AM to 3PM Eastern should a technical set up present itself on the Daily / hourly charts.

Get ready to Buy USD/CAD

At 9:30PM, Canadian Int’l Merchandise Trade report comes out and is expected to be bearish. Oil prices which also drives the Canadian dollar is seen as ranging and not strongly trending up or down especially with the problems with the Auto industry world wide.
Timing Window: Get ready to short this pair anytime between Thursday 11AM to 3PM (Wed 10PM to 2AM Eastern)  should a technical set up present itself on the Daily / hourly charts.

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY

Also at 9:30PM, US Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance comes out. The only currency stronger than the USD at this point is the JPY so, this would be another opportunity to short this pair.
Timing Window: Get ready to short this pair anytime between 11AM to 3 PM (Wed 10PM to 2AM Eastern)  should a technical set up present itself on the Daily / hourly charts.

Friday

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY
At 9:30PM, US Advanced retail sales comes out which is expected to be bearish for the USD, so shorting USD/JPY once again would be a high probability trade.
Timing Window: Get ready to short this pair anytime between 11AM to 3PM  (Thurs 10PM to 2AM Eastern) should a technical set up present itself on the Daily / hourly charts.

Well that’s it for this week. Should anything change, I will update this post.

These are my views, I may be wrong, please follow at your own risk.

Monsterpips to All!
-Mark

http://www.timingyourtrade.com

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