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Sunday, November 16, 2008

11:46AM

Last Saturday, Nov 15, 2008 a gathering of the world leaders took place vowing to fight global recession. Now while the assembling of the worlds major powers is impressive, it looks to me that their bark is far louder than their bite. No action steps were made and if ever there will be, formailization of anything will be sometime April when President Obama officially takes office and the world leaders convene again. Meanwhile, the US will still have to take the lead with the on going re-structuring plans like TARP (which right now is being pulled every which way) as ground zero for this whole financial downturn really started in the US.

Jobs and the increasing fear of a much deeper recession is still a major worry and consumer spending will most likely fall in December which is traditionally a peak shopping month for consumers around the world (Christmas shopping). This high possibility will increase the fear of a world wide slowdown and inflationary pressures and Oil will be closely watched. Oil will continue to decline. Some analysts are predicting a US$30 / barrel oil, I believe it will hit 40 before the year ends. As such the USD will continue to rise especially against CAD. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves right now:

Here are the pairs and the timing windows I’ll be cooking this week.

Monday – Nov 17, 2008

Get ready to Buy USD/CAD on Monday Nov 17, 2008

The fundamental reason:

The USD will continue to strengthen as investors continue to unload their non-cash investments in exchange for the USD, Oil on the other hand will continue to fall even as OPEC cuts production, there is simply no room right now to speculate on another run to $100 / barrel oil. Technically, this pair is in a long term up trend with the hourlies showing a possible set up as I write this (Sunday).

Timing Window:

Get ready to Buy USD/CAD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10AM – 3PM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 2AM – 7AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 9PM – 2AM (This is GMT-5)

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Get ready to Buy EUR/GBP on Monday Nov 17, 2008

The fundamental reason:

Eurozone trade balance comes out at 6PM Phil. Time, while the trade balance in Europe is far from ideal, it will be better relative to it’s older brother in the United Kingdom. The best pair to trade for this news release will be the EUR/GBP

Timing Window:

Get ready to Buy EUR/GBP at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM – 11AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 12MN – 3AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 7PM – 10PM (This is GMT-5)

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Get ready to Sell USD/JPY on Monday Nov 17, 2008

The fundamental reason:

The Meeting of the world leaders last Saturday was for the most part a photo opportunity which may have an adverse effect on the markets. I believe that the markets will use this as cause for another panic driven sell off in the Dow when the North American Session opens.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM – 3PM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 12MN – 8AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 7PM – 2AM (This is GMT-5)

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Tuesday – Nov 18, 2008

Get ready to Sell GBP/USD on Tuesday, Nov 18, 2008

The fundamental reason:

Consumer and retail price indices comes out at 5:30PM Philippine time which should show that inflationary pressures in the UK are dropping which will lead to more speculation of a further lowering of interest rates. Needless to say however, the GBP is likely to drop further as there is absolutely no good news at the moment for the UK economy. In some articles I’ve read, it has even gone to compare the UK economy to a possible Iceland (I don’t think it’s that bad though, but bad enough to scare people out of their pound holdings)

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell GBP/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM – 11AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 12MN – 3AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 7PM – 10PM (This is GMT-5)

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Get ready to Sell NZD/USD on Tuesday, Nov 18, 2008

The fundamental reason:

Inflationary reports for the Kiwi in the form of Producer Price Index comes out at 5:45AM Philippine Time. This will show a lowering of price expectations which is good for the economy but bearish for the currency.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell NZD/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10PM – 3AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 2PM – 7PM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 9AM – 2PM (This is GMT-5)

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Wednesday, Nov 19, 2008

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD on Wednesday, Nov 19, 2008

The fundamental reason:

Producer Price Index (Inflationary reports) for the Euro comes out at 3:00PM Philippine Time the next day Thursday. This will show a lowering of price expectations which is good for the economy but bearish for the currency.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10PM – 8AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 2PM – 12MN (This is GMT)

New York Time: 9AM – 7PM (This is GMT-5)

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Thursday, Nov 20, 2008

No viable opportunities on Thursday

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Friday, Nov 21, 2008

No viable opportunities on Friday

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Well that’s my forecasts and timing windows for this week, should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

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