High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

12:57PM Philippine time

I would want to say that the downward spiral of all non-US major currencies is at an end, but I simply can’t. Citibank is cutting 52,000 jobs and their stock is down 20% clobbered by fear of another big bank failure even as the dow rallies +494 points in the last hour of trading last Friday. The auto industry’s plight is on hold until congress re-convenes, and may fail. The US housing market is getting much, much worse and liquidity among banks is still an issue. To top it off a total of 22 US banks have gone under receivership this year alone.

Because of this, the USD will continue to strengthen based on fear and fear alone. Furthermore, the trading week will be shortened this week as the US markets close on Thursday for Thanksgiving on Nov 27 so there aren’t many great opportunities except for a few.

Here are the pairs and the timing windows I’ll be cooking this week.

Monday – Nov 24, 2008

No Viable Opportunity on Monday.

———————————————————————————————–

Tuesday – Nov 25, 2008

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY on Tuesday Nov 25, 2008

The fundamental reason:

Revised US GDP comes out at 9:30 PM Philippine time and it may be a lot worse than everyone expects. The Japanese Yen is the only currency stronger than the USD at this point so it is this pair that I’ll be looking to short.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM – 3PM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 12MN – 8AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 7PM – 2AM (This is GMT-5: Monday 7PM to Tuesday 2AM)

———————————————————————————————–

Wednesday, Nov 26, 2008

Get ready to Buy EUR/GBP on Wednesday Nov 26, 2008

The fundamental reason:

Revised GDP of the GBP comes out Wednesday at 5:30Pm Phil. Time and like the US may be a lot worse than is expected. However I believe that the Euro will strengthen this week so pairing EUR/GBP and trading it long would be a better trade compared to GBP/USD

Timing Window:

Get ready to Buy EUR/GBP at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM – 11AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 12MN – 3AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 7PM – 10PM (This is GMT-5: Tuesday 7PM to Tuesday 10PM)

————————————————————————————————-

Get ready to Sell NZD/USD on Wednesday Nov 26, 2008

The fundamental reason:

New Zealand Trade balance, imports and exports comes out at 5:45AM Early morning on Thursday and is expected to be bearish once more

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell NZD/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10PM – 3AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 2PM – 7PM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 9AM – 2PM (This is GMT-5)

————————————————————————————————-

Thursday, Nov 27, 2008

No viable opportunities on Thursday

————————————————————————————————-

Friday, Nov 28, 2008

No viable opportunities on Friday

————————————————————————————————-

Well that’s my forecasts and timing windows for this week, should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

Advertisements