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Sunday, Dec 7, 2008

4:00PM Philippine time

I wrote last week that the job losses and the worsening economy have already been priced in. As proof, the bigger than expected Non-Farm Payroll report did not affect the Dow and in fact closed up 200 + points last Friday, which is also what I predicted.

I also wrote last week that Investors are hoping for a bottom and that it is not far fetched. However majority of the investors are still staying on the sides and will wait until US President Elect Obama fully takes control.

Because of this, what I predicted last August — That the USD will continue to rise while all other majors will continue it’s spiraling decline will continue until end of 2008.

Having said that, here are the pairs I’ll be cooking this week:

Monday – Dec 8, 2008

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD (First Opportunity) on Monday Dec 8, 2008

The fundamental reason:

At 7PM Philippine Time, German Industrial Production is expected to be very weak (weaker than expected)

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 7AM – 3PM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 11PM – 7AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 6PM – 2AM (This is GMT-5: Sunday 6PM to Monday 2AM)

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Get ready to Sell EUR/USD (Second Opportunity) on Monday Dec 8, 2008

The fundamental reason:

At 3PM Manila Time next day Tuesday Dec 9, 2008 German Trade Balance comes out which should show a decline. Then at 6PM Manila Time, German Zew Survey comes out which is again bearish.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10PM – 11AM (This is GMT+8: Monday 10PM – Tuesday 11AM)

London Time: 2PM – 3AM (This is GMT: Monday 2PM – Tuesday 3AM)

New York Time: 9AM – 10PM (This is GMT-5: Monday 9AM to 10PM)

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Get ready to Sell GBP/USD on Monday Dec 8, 2008

The fundamental reason:

At 5:30PM Manila Time, a slew of economic indicators including trade balance, industrial and manufacturing production will be released. Bearish news all around.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell GBP/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10PM – 11AM (This is GMT+8: Monday 10PM – Tuesday 11AM)

London Time: 2PM – 3AM (This is GMT: Monday 2PM – Tuesday 3AM)

New York Time: 9AM – 10PM (This is GMT-5: Monday 9AM to 10PM)

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Get ready to Buy EUR/GBP on Monday Dec 8, 2008

The fundamental reason:

AT 5:30PM UK PPI comes out which is expected to be bearish, between Euro and the Pound, the Euro will not fall as much as it’s older brother.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Buy EUR/GBP at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 5:30AM – 11:30AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 9:30PM – 3:30AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 4:30PM – 10:30PM (This is GMT-5: Sunday 4:30PM to 10:30PM)

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Tuesday – Dec 9, 2008

Get ready to Sell AUD/USD on Tuesday Dec 9, 2008

The fundamental reason:

At 8:30AM Manila Time next day Wednesday, Australian Unemployment Rate comes out. Job losses are not just apparent in the US but Globally so the Australian rate coming out is expected to be bearish again.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell AUD/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8:30 PM –1AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 12:30PM – 5PM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 7:30AM – 12PM (This is GMT-5)

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Wednesday – Dec 10, 2008

No viable opportunities on Wednesday

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Thursday – Dec 11, 2008

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY on Thursday Dec 11, 2008

The fundamental reason:

At 9PM Manila Time Thursday, a slew of US economic indicators including initial jobless claims, continuing claims and trade balance comes out. Still bearish.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 9AM –3PM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 1AM – 7AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 8PM– 2AM (This is GMT-5: Wednesday 8PM – Thursday 2AM)

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Friday – Dec 12, 2008

No viable opportunities on Friday

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Well that’s my forecasts and timing windows for this week, should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

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