High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice.

Sunday, Jan 4, 2009

1:30PM Philippine time

Happy New Year!

I wrote last December 21, 2008 that I was calling for an official reversal of USD Strength and in the next 3 to 6 months it will weaken significantly against the EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP, CHF. Over the holidays the major pairs hit new 5 month highs (but unfortunately did not go down enough for any buying opportunities for me, plus I was on vacation ;))

Again, the reason is that the US Fed lowered it’s Fed Funds rates to 0.25% (tantamount to 0%) effectively de-basing the value and strength of the USD. Many investors (including myself) no longer see the USD as a viable “safe-haven” currency. But the real risk for the USD this year is that many investor’s fear that China may shun the USD as a major reserve in 2009 due to the low yielding Currency (plus it was badly burned in Fannie and Freddie).

Going down to micro economic factors, this week we will see US Non-Farm payrolls once again decline. No good news there but it will drive the USD lower still with the EUR and AUD the pairs that will benefit the most I believe. Having said that, here are the pairs I’ll be cooking this week:

Monday – Jan 5, 2009

Get ready to Buy EUR/USD

The fundamental reason:

At 3PM Philippine Time, German Retail Sales data comes out which should show an improvement and increased confidence in a Eurozone recovery.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Buy EUR/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 7AM – 12NN (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

———————————————————————————————–

Get ready to Buy AUD/USD

The fundamental reason:

At 8:30AM Manila Time next day Tuesday, Australian Retail Sales comes out which should also show improvement.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Buy AUD/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8:30 PM –1AM (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

———————————————————————————————–

Tuesday – Jan 6, 2009

Get ready to Sell USD/CHF

The fundamental reason:

At 11PM Philippine Time, US ISM data comes out which should be bearish

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell USD/CHF at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 3PM – 8PM (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

———————————————————————————————–

Wednesday – Jan 7, 2009

No viable opportunities on Wednesday

————————————————————————————————-

Thursday – Jan 8, 2009

No viable opportunities on Thursday

————————————————————————————————-

Friday – Jan 9, 2009

No viable opportunities on Friday

————————————————————————————————-

Well that’s my forecasts and timing windows for this week, please only follow my advice at your own risk.

Should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

Advertisements