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Sunday, Jan 11, 2009

8:30PM Philippine time

Where do you place your money in 2009? Is what most investors are asking. Since November last year, most investors were content after huge losses to just keeping it in cash specifically in US Dollars. But start of 2009, and the start of the Presidency of Barak Obama is giving more and more people hope and optimism that 2009 will not be so bad. Many successful investors interviewed by Bloomberg over the weekend including the famous Gloom, Boom and Doom Marc Faber said that there will be a bit of a bounce in the US markets in the first quarter… but inevitably it will resume it’s downward spiral as fundamentals are not good at all.

First off, I would agree that many people are tired of the double digit declines that their investment portfolios have suffered in 2008 and are looking to re-coop their losses which will lead to a small bounce in the next 3 to 6 months. I believe like many investors that the market has already baked in all the bad news “Yes we know, it’s bad”. Now because of this, I believe money will be returning in to the markets although slowly and cautiously. (Unless another Major bank collapses, all bets are off)

Now how does this translate to currencies? Well, with interest rates going down in all countries led by the US, carry traders are looking at the remaining higher yielding currencies to buy and these are. AUD, NZD, GBP, EUR. I would also think that JPY will continue to strengthen against the USD as a safe haven currency for those who are still on the fence. Out of all these currencies the GBP seems to have the most potential as the interest rate easing done last week slowed somewhat with possible rate cuts looking less likely. The fate of the Euro on the other hand all depends on how stubborn Trichet will be when he talks this week.

So here’re the pairs that I’m cooking this week:

Monday – Jan 12, 2009

No viable opportunities for Monday, Jan 12, 2009

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Tuesday – Jan 13, 2009

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY

The fundamental reason:

At 9:30PM Philippine Time, US trade balance comes out which is expected to kick the pair lower

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 3PM – 8PM (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Get ready to Sell CAD/JPY

The fundamental reason:

At 9:30PM Philippine Time, Canadian trade balance comes out which is also expected to kick the pair lower

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell CAD/JPY at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 3PM – 8PM (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Wednesday – Jan 14, 2009

Get ready to Buy AUD/USD

The fundamental reason:

At 8:30AM Philippine Time, the next day, Thursday, Australian unemployment rate comes out which may surprise to the upside. This will push the pairing up as job losses all over are dismal.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Buy AUD/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8PM Wed– 3AM Thurs (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Thursday – Jan 15, 2009

No viable opportunities on Thursday

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Friday – Jan 16, 2009

No viable opportunities on Friday

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Well that’s my forecasts and timing windows for this week, please only follow my advice at your own risk.

Should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

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