Week of Feb 16 to Feb 20, 2009

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Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Saturday, Feb 14, 2009

4:10PM Philippine time

I wrote last week Obama’s stimulus plan is not going to stimulate the US economy because of all the politicking and amendments. At best, it will only cause more suffering and pain in months to come. Tim Geithner was supposed to pull it all together when he unveiled the plans for the banking sector, he didn’t and in fact caused more panic in the markets when his plan lacked details the market was waiting to hear. Because of that incident the USD strengthened on the phenomenon called “flight to safety” which means that investors pulled out of the markets and kept the majority of their holdings in cash (basically they sold off their assets in exchange for USD).

=> So here’s what you have to remember this week. The more bad news you hear from the US, the stronger the USD will become.

Now, the Bailout plan is ready for Obama’s signature as it has already passed the Democrat controlled house and senate at 787Billion dollars. What remains now is to see what happens. As such the markets, specifically the currency markets will be in consolidation mode this week (basically no clear direction and it will gyrate back and forth or will be trading sideways)

So having said all that, here’re the pairs that I’ll be cooking for the week:

Monday – Feb 16, 2009

No viable opportunities on Monday.

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Tuesday – Feb 17, 2009

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD on Tuesday Feb 17, 2009

The fundamental reason:

At 6PM, German ZEW Survey (business sentiment) will come out which should be bearish for the Euro

Timing Window:

Get ready to sell EUR/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM to 12NN (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Wednesday – Feb 18, 2009

Get ready to Buy EUR/GBP on Wednesday Feb 18, 2009

The fundamental reason:

At 5:30PM, Bank of England Minutes of the Interest Rate Meeting will be released which should be bearish for the interest rate outlook for the GBP

Timing Window:

Get ready to buy EUR/GBP at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM to 12NN (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Get ready to Sell GBP/USD on Tuesday Feb 18, 2009

The fundamental reason:

At 5:30PM, Bank of England Minutes of the Interest Rate Meeting will be released which should be bearish for the interest rate outlook for the GBP

Timing Window:

Get ready to sell GBP/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM to 12NN (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

Thursday – Feb 19, 2009

No viable opportunities on Thursday.

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Friday – Feb 20, 2009

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD on Friday Feb 20, 2009

The fundamental reason:

At 4:30PM, German PMI (GDP related data) will come out which should be bearish for the Euro

Timing Window:

Get ready to sell EUR/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM to 12NN (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Get ready to Sell GBP/USD on Tuesday Feb 20, 2009

The fundamental reason:

At 5:30PM, UK retail sales (GDP related data) will come out which should be bearish again for the GBP

Timing Window:

Get ready to sell GBP/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM to 12NN (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Well that’s my forecasts and timing windows for this week, please only follow my advice at your own risk.

Should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

P.S. Happy Valentines To All!

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Week of Jan 26 – Jan 30, 2009

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Sunday, Jan 25, 2009

9:00PM Philippine time

Last week we saw a terrible loss of confidence in the Eurpoean banking sector which lead to a massive collapse of both the Euro and the Pound. It was triggered by 1.) UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s announcement of a 50 Billion GBP government infusion to insure UK’s toxic assets and 2.) The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) announced a full year’s loss, the largest corporate loss in UK history. In Euroland, on the other hand, there was an article in Dailyfx that there are flaring tensions and talks of a breakup (or breakdown) of the Euro. While I don’t think the ECB will be abandoned fairly easily, I do think that the Euro is as affected as GBP in terms of confidence loss and getting investors to rally behind them. At least, not for this week.

Now, trading the markets this week would be easier if there was some good news in the US, problem is there is none to speak of, especially this week. President Obama is now just beginning to tackle the many, many problems facing the US and is focused on the internal re-arranging of bailout priorities leaving the rest of the world to fend for themselves in the mean time. The Dow closed down around the 8,000 level and investors everywhere are rubbing their foreheads trying to figure out what to do now. Aspirin anyone?

As for me, I do still see some opportunities this week, So here’re the pairs that I’m cooking:

Monday – Jan 26, 2009

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY

The fundamental reason:

At 11PM Philippine Time, US Housing data and leading indicators are set to come out more bearish than ever.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 12NN – 7PM (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Tuesday – Jan 27, 2009

Get ready to Sell NZD/USD

The fundamental reason:

At 5:45AM Philippine time, next day Wednesday the New Zealand Rate decision comes out which is expected to be a full 1 point cut from 5% to 4%.

Timing Window:

Get ready to sell NZD/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8PM to 12MN (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Wednesday – Jan 28, 2009

No viable opportunities for Wed.

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Thursday – Jan 29, 2009

No viable opportunities on Thursday

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Friday – Jan 30, 2009

Get ready to Sell CAD/JPY

The fundamental reason:

At 9:30PM Philippine Time, Canadian GDP comes out which is also expected to kick the pair lower

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell CAD/JPY at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 12NN – 4PM (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Well that’s my forecasts and timing windows for this week, please only follow my advice at your own risk.

Should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

Week of Jan 19 – Jan 23, 2009

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Sunday, Jan 18, 2009

3:00PM Philippine time

This week is about the hope of change as President Elect Obama gets inaugurated on Tuesday. The whole world will be watching every word he says in his speech. It is never good to mix politics with financial concerns however because of the ongoing Financial Crisis, the world including the financial sector in all countries is looking at the new US Leader to see where the world goes from here.

I still maintain the reversal in USD strength from now until March or even June 2009.

(I gave my reasons 2 weeks ago), but more importantly now, interest rate cuts from all countries are easing somewhat with a wait and see attitude. ECB president Trichet himself said that there will be a postponement of any further rate action / decision until March. The UK also said something similar last week. This week, we will see inflation reports in the form of CPI and PPI from UK and Europe to show a slight increase in prices once more which if I’m correct will keep Eurozone and UK interest rates untouched for the short term.

Last week, the NON-USD Majors corrected downwards while the USD recovered a bit. So this week would be a good week to start buying low once more for the EUR, AUD, GBP.

So here’re the pairs that I’m cooking this week:

Monday – Jan 19, 2009

No viable opportunities for Monday.

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Tuesday – Jan 20, 2009

Get ready to Buy GBP/USD

The fundamental reason:

At 5:30PM Philippine Time, UK CPI comes out which is expected to boost the pair higher

Timing Window:

Get ready to buy GBP/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM to 12NN (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Get ready to Buy NZD/USD

The fundamental reason:

At 5:45AM the next day Wednesday Philippine Time, New Zealand Retail Sales come out which I believe will be better than most analysts expect and should give the Kiwi a boost.

Timing Window:

Get ready to buy NZD/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10PM to 12 MN (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Wednesday – Jan 21, 2009

No viable opportunities for Wed.

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Thursday – Jan 22, 2009

No viable opportunities on Thursday

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Friday – Jan 23, 2009

Get ready to Sell CAD/JPY

The fundamental reason:

At 8PM Philippine Time, Canadian core CPI comes out which is also expected to kick the pair lower

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell CAD/JPY at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 12NN – 4PM (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Well that’s my forecasts and timing windows for this week, please only follow my advice at your own risk.

Should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

Mark’s Weekly Currency Kitchen Snapshot 1/12/2009

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Sunday, Jan 11, 2009
9:00PM Philippine time

Where do you place your money in 2009? Is what most investors are asking. Since November last year, most investors were content after huge losses to just keeping it in cash specifically in US Dollars. But start of 2009, and the start of the Presidency of Barak Obama is giving more and more people hope and optimism that 2009 will not be so bad. Many successful investors interviewed by Bloomberg over the weekend including the famous Gloom, Boom and Doom Marc Faber said that there will be a bit of a bounce in the US markets in the first quarter… but inevitably it will resume it’s downward spiral as fundamentals are not good at all.

First off, I would agree that many people are tired of the double digit declines that their investment portfolios have suffered in 2008 and are looking to re-coop their losses which will lead to a small bounce in the next 3 to 6 months. I believe like many investors that the market has already baked in all the bad news “Yes we know, it’s bad”. Now because of this, I believe money will be returning in to the markets although slowly and cautiously. (Unless another Major bank collapses, all bets are off)

Now how does this translate to currencies? Well, with interest rates going down in all countries led by the US, carry traders are looking at the remaining higher yielding currencies to buy and these are. AUD, NZD, GBP, EUR. I would also think that JPY will continue to strengthen against the USD as a safe haven currency for those who are still on the fence. Out of all these currencies the GBP seems to have the most potential as the interest rate easing done last week slowed somewhat with possible rate cuts looking less likely. The fate of the Euro on the other hand all depends on how stubborn Trichet will be when he talks this week.

For What currency pairs Mark is trading this week, please log in to http://www.forexclubmanila.com

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark  So

Week of Jan 12 – Jan 16, 2009

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Sunday, Jan 11, 2009

8:30PM Philippine time

Where do you place your money in 2009? Is what most investors are asking. Since November last year, most investors were content after huge losses to just keeping it in cash specifically in US Dollars. But start of 2009, and the start of the Presidency of Barak Obama is giving more and more people hope and optimism that 2009 will not be so bad. Many successful investors interviewed by Bloomberg over the weekend including the famous Gloom, Boom and Doom Marc Faber said that there will be a bit of a bounce in the US markets in the first quarter… but inevitably it will resume it’s downward spiral as fundamentals are not good at all.

First off, I would agree that many people are tired of the double digit declines that their investment portfolios have suffered in 2008 and are looking to re-coop their losses which will lead to a small bounce in the next 3 to 6 months. I believe like many investors that the market has already baked in all the bad news “Yes we know, it’s bad”. Now because of this, I believe money will be returning in to the markets although slowly and cautiously. (Unless another Major bank collapses, all bets are off)

Now how does this translate to currencies? Well, with interest rates going down in all countries led by the US, carry traders are looking at the remaining higher yielding currencies to buy and these are. AUD, NZD, GBP, EUR. I would also think that JPY will continue to strengthen against the USD as a safe haven currency for those who are still on the fence. Out of all these currencies the GBP seems to have the most potential as the interest rate easing done last week slowed somewhat with possible rate cuts looking less likely. The fate of the Euro on the other hand all depends on how stubborn Trichet will be when he talks this week.

So here’re the pairs that I’m cooking this week:

Monday – Jan 12, 2009

No viable opportunities for Monday, Jan 12, 2009

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Tuesday – Jan 13, 2009

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY

The fundamental reason:

At 9:30PM Philippine Time, US trade balance comes out which is expected to kick the pair lower

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 3PM – 8PM (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Get ready to Sell CAD/JPY

The fundamental reason:

At 9:30PM Philippine Time, Canadian trade balance comes out which is also expected to kick the pair lower

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell CAD/JPY at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 3PM – 8PM (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Wednesday – Jan 14, 2009

Get ready to Buy AUD/USD

The fundamental reason:

At 8:30AM Philippine Time, the next day, Thursday, Australian unemployment rate comes out which may surprise to the upside. This will push the pairing up as job losses all over are dismal.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Buy AUD/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8PM Wed– 3AM Thurs (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Thursday – Jan 15, 2009

No viable opportunities on Thursday

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Friday – Jan 16, 2009

No viable opportunities on Friday

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Well that’s my forecasts and timing windows for this week, please only follow my advice at your own risk.

Should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

Week of Jan 5 – Jan 9, 2009

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Sunday, Jan 4, 2009

1:30PM Philippine time

Happy New Year!

I wrote last December 21, 2008 that I was calling for an official reversal of USD Strength and in the next 3 to 6 months it will weaken significantly against the EUR, AUD, NZD, GBP, CHF. Over the holidays the major pairs hit new 5 month highs (but unfortunately did not go down enough for any buying opportunities for me, plus I was on vacation ;))

Again, the reason is that the US Fed lowered it’s Fed Funds rates to 0.25% (tantamount to 0%) effectively de-basing the value and strength of the USD. Many investors (including myself) no longer see the USD as a viable “safe-haven” currency. But the real risk for the USD this year is that many investor’s fear that China may shun the USD as a major reserve in 2009 due to the low yielding Currency (plus it was badly burned in Fannie and Freddie).

Going down to micro economic factors, this week we will see US Non-Farm payrolls once again decline. No good news there but it will drive the USD lower still with the EUR and AUD the pairs that will benefit the most I believe. Having said that, here are the pairs I’ll be cooking this week:

Monday – Jan 5, 2009

Get ready to Buy EUR/USD

The fundamental reason:

At 3PM Philippine Time, German Retail Sales data comes out which should show an improvement and increased confidence in a Eurozone recovery.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Buy EUR/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 7AM – 12NN (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Get ready to Buy AUD/USD

The fundamental reason:

At 8:30AM Manila Time next day Tuesday, Australian Retail Sales comes out which should also show improvement.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Buy AUD/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8:30 PM –1AM (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Tuesday – Jan 6, 2009

Get ready to Sell USD/CHF

The fundamental reason:

At 11PM Philippine Time, US ISM data comes out which should be bearish

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell USD/CHF at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 3PM – 8PM (This is GMT+8)

(For non-Philippine residents, please download and use the easy time conversion table found on this link: http://timingyourtrade.com/component/content/article/38-getting-started/58-time-conversion-easy-reference-guide.html)

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Wednesday – Jan 7, 2009

No viable opportunities on Wednesday

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Thursday – Jan 8, 2009

No viable opportunities on Thursday

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Friday – Jan 9, 2009

No viable opportunities on Friday

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Well that’s my forecasts and timing windows for this week, please only follow my advice at your own risk.

Should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

Week of Dec 15 – Dec 19, 2008

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Week of Dec 15 – Dec 19, 2008

Sunday, Dec 14, 2008

7:00PM Philippine time

The US Auto bailout failure saga is holding the US economy and Investor Risk Appetite hostage. A Whitehouse intervention of 5 to 15Billion dollars is still being debated and as of this writing, no decisions have been made. Analysts are saying that this amount is way short for their immediate cash needs. Personally, I believe that money or not, the Auto Industry may already be done for. (I really hope I am wrong) If the US Auto industry is allowed to fail, this will translate to 1 million more job losses in the US and may spin the country into a depression.

To top this off, Investors are pricing in a 97% chance of a US Fed cut from 1% to 0.25% this coming Wednesday early morning. This has never been done before and will be catastrophic for the USD. I believe that this is and the Auto bailout issue was the reason why the USD already started to weaken last week.

A reversal now of currency strength is now in the works as the USD will start to weaken materially giving back it’s gains since August. The question remains, what will the Whitehouse do for the Auto industry and what will the Fed do for the interest rates?

Having said that, I would recommend to not be trading this week as the chaos and uncertainty will be unlike anything we have ever seen before.

Should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

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