Week of Dec 8 – Dec 12, 2008

Leave a comment

High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice.

Sunday, Dec 7, 2008

4:00PM Philippine time

I wrote last week that the job losses and the worsening economy have already been priced in. As proof, the bigger than expected Non-Farm Payroll report did not affect the Dow and in fact closed up 200 + points last Friday, which is also what I predicted.

I also wrote last week that Investors are hoping for a bottom and that it is not far fetched. However majority of the investors are still staying on the sides and will wait until US President Elect Obama fully takes control.

Because of this, what I predicted last August — That the USD will continue to rise while all other majors will continue it’s spiraling decline will continue until end of 2008.

Having said that, here are the pairs I’ll be cooking this week:

Monday – Dec 8, 2008

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD (First Opportunity) on Monday Dec 8, 2008

The fundamental reason:

At 7PM Philippine Time, German Industrial Production is expected to be very weak (weaker than expected)

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 7AM – 3PM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 11PM – 7AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 6PM – 2AM (This is GMT-5: Sunday 6PM to Monday 2AM)

———————————————————————————————–

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD (Second Opportunity) on Monday Dec 8, 2008

The fundamental reason:

At 3PM Manila Time next day Tuesday Dec 9, 2008 German Trade Balance comes out which should show a decline. Then at 6PM Manila Time, German Zew Survey comes out which is again bearish.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10PM – 11AM (This is GMT+8: Monday 10PM – Tuesday 11AM)

London Time: 2PM – 3AM (This is GMT: Monday 2PM – Tuesday 3AM)

New York Time: 9AM – 10PM (This is GMT-5: Monday 9AM to 10PM)

———————————————————————————————–

Get ready to Sell GBP/USD on Monday Dec 8, 2008

The fundamental reason:

At 5:30PM Manila Time, a slew of economic indicators including trade balance, industrial and manufacturing production will be released. Bearish news all around.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell GBP/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10PM – 11AM (This is GMT+8: Monday 10PM – Tuesday 11AM)

London Time: 2PM – 3AM (This is GMT: Monday 2PM – Tuesday 3AM)

New York Time: 9AM – 10PM (This is GMT-5: Monday 9AM to 10PM)

———————————————————————————————–

Get ready to Buy EUR/GBP on Monday Dec 8, 2008

The fundamental reason:

AT 5:30PM UK PPI comes out which is expected to be bearish, between Euro and the Pound, the Euro will not fall as much as it’s older brother.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Buy EUR/GBP at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 5:30AM – 11:30AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 9:30PM – 3:30AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 4:30PM – 10:30PM (This is GMT-5: Sunday 4:30PM to 10:30PM)

———————————————————————————————–

Tuesday – Dec 9, 2008

Get ready to Sell AUD/USD on Tuesday Dec 9, 2008

The fundamental reason:

At 8:30AM Manila Time next day Wednesday, Australian Unemployment Rate comes out. Job losses are not just apparent in the US but Globally so the Australian rate coming out is expected to be bearish again.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell AUD/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8:30 PM –1AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 12:30PM – 5PM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 7:30AM – 12PM (This is GMT-5)

———————————————————————————————–

Wednesday – Dec 10, 2008

No viable opportunities on Wednesday

————————————————————————————————-

Thursday – Dec 11, 2008

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY on Thursday Dec 11, 2008

The fundamental reason:

At 9PM Manila Time Thursday, a slew of US economic indicators including initial jobless claims, continuing claims and trade balance comes out. Still bearish.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 9AM –3PM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 1AM – 7AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 8PM– 2AM (This is GMT-5: Wednesday 8PM – Thursday 2AM)

————————————————————————————————-

Friday – Dec 12, 2008

No viable opportunities on Friday

————————————————————————————————-

Well that’s my forecasts and timing windows for this week, should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

Advertisements

Week of Dec 1- Dec 5, 2008

Leave a comment

<!– [if !mso]> <! st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } –>

High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

3:30PM Philippine time

The Markets are always forward looking.

What I mean by this is that the unrelenting bad news that has been pounding the markets for the past 2 months has already been fully priced in (discounted) by the markets. Even if the much awaited non-farm payrolls this coming Friday comes up negative again (which it will), I believe that this will not move the USD nor the other major currencies as much as before—but it will move the markets one way or the other.

The macro story now is that Investors are hoping for a bottom and are looking for a sign that it is in place. This past week, the Dow has rallied 5 out of 5 days, because of this, many are seeing this as a time to re-enter the markets as risk appetite returns. Is the bottom in place? I believe that the sentiment of hope is slowly edging out fear and the thought of an intermediary bottom is not far fetched at least for the equities markets. The Dow will continue to cautiously go up this week despite the projected job losses by Friday.

The problem is, the Dow and the major stock indices around the world are now at a disconnect with the currency market especially in Carry trades. With interest rates from major central banks around the world dropping fast, the demand for carry trade pairs will continue to decline in months to come as the rewards of the carry trades will no longer be worthwhile for the risks it presents. Therefore the Yen pairs will now search for a different dynamic to latch upon which is no longer the major US stock indices but rather the fundamentals of the USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD. I continue my position that these pairs will continue to decline in the long term but a push up this week may happen due to the knee jerk reaction to the Dow – This will be temporary and shorting these carry trade pairs is still the main direction for my trades for the last month of the Year.

Now this week is going to be very active represented by first a move up by the Non-USD majors specifically EUR, GBP, JPY all heading higher at the start of the week before it drops to lower lows before this week ends. Having said that, here are the pairs I’ll be cooking this week:

Monday – Dec 1, 2008

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY on Monday Dec 1, 2008

The fundamental reason:

US ISM Manufacturing data comes out at 11PM Philippine Time and will show a decline in Purchasing for Manufacturing purposes.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM – 3PM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 12MN – 8AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 7PM – 2AM (This is GMT-5: Sunday 7PM to Monday 2AM)

———————————————————————————————–

Get ready to Sell AUD/USD on Monday Dec 1, 2008

The fundamental reason:

On Tuesday Dec 2, 2008 Philippine Time, AUD retail sales trend data comes out at 8:30AM then the AUD cash rate (interest rate) announcement at 11AM which are both expected to drive the currency downwards.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell AUD/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10PM – 3AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 2PM – 7PM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 9AM – 2PM (This is GMT-5: Monday 9AM to 2 PM)

———————————————————————————————–

Tuesday – Dec 2, 2008

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD on Tuesday Dec 2, 2008

The fundamental reason:

On Wednesday Dec 3, 2008 Philippine Time, EUR retail sales comes out at 6PM which is expected to drive the currency downwards. Technically, the pair should hit resistance at around 1.2950 by that time which if the pair cannot break it, will go down to the bottom of the range at 1.25

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10PM – 11AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 2PM – 3AM (This is GMT: Tuesday 2PM – Wednesday 3AM)

New York Time: 9AM – 10PM (This is GMT-5: Tuesday 9AM to 10PM)

———————————————————————————————–

Wednesday – Dec 3, 2008

Get ready to Sell NZD/USD on Wednesday Dec 3, 2008

The fundamental reason:

On Thursday Dec 4, 2008 New Zealand Cash rate comes out at 4 AM Early morning on Thursday and is expected to be cut by 1 full point.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell NZD/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10PM – 3AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 2PM – 7PM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 9AM – 2PM (This is GMT-5)

————————————————————————————————-

Thursday – Dec 4, 2008

No viable opportunities on Thursday

————————————————————————————————-

Friday – Dec 5, 2008

No viable opportunities on Friday

————————————————————————————————-

Well that’s my forecasts and timing windows for this week, should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

Week of Nov 24 – Nov 28, 2008

Leave a comment

High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice.

Sunday, November 23, 2008

12:57PM Philippine time

I would want to say that the downward spiral of all non-US major currencies is at an end, but I simply can’t. Citibank is cutting 52,000 jobs and their stock is down 20% clobbered by fear of another big bank failure even as the dow rallies +494 points in the last hour of trading last Friday. The auto industry’s plight is on hold until congress re-convenes, and may fail. The US housing market is getting much, much worse and liquidity among banks is still an issue. To top it off a total of 22 US banks have gone under receivership this year alone.

Because of this, the USD will continue to strengthen based on fear and fear alone. Furthermore, the trading week will be shortened this week as the US markets close on Thursday for Thanksgiving on Nov 27 so there aren’t many great opportunities except for a few.

Here are the pairs and the timing windows I’ll be cooking this week.

Monday – Nov 24, 2008

No Viable Opportunity on Monday.

———————————————————————————————–

Tuesday – Nov 25, 2008

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY on Tuesday Nov 25, 2008

The fundamental reason:

Revised US GDP comes out at 9:30 PM Philippine time and it may be a lot worse than everyone expects. The Japanese Yen is the only currency stronger than the USD at this point so it is this pair that I’ll be looking to short.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM – 3PM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 12MN – 8AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 7PM – 2AM (This is GMT-5: Monday 7PM to Tuesday 2AM)

———————————————————————————————–

Wednesday, Nov 26, 2008

Get ready to Buy EUR/GBP on Wednesday Nov 26, 2008

The fundamental reason:

Revised GDP of the GBP comes out Wednesday at 5:30Pm Phil. Time and like the US may be a lot worse than is expected. However I believe that the Euro will strengthen this week so pairing EUR/GBP and trading it long would be a better trade compared to GBP/USD

Timing Window:

Get ready to Buy EUR/GBP at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM – 11AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 12MN – 3AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 7PM – 10PM (This is GMT-5: Tuesday 7PM to Tuesday 10PM)

————————————————————————————————-

Get ready to Sell NZD/USD on Wednesday Nov 26, 2008

The fundamental reason:

New Zealand Trade balance, imports and exports comes out at 5:45AM Early morning on Thursday and is expected to be bearish once more

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell NZD/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10PM – 3AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 2PM – 7PM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 9AM – 2PM (This is GMT-5)

————————————————————————————————-

Thursday, Nov 27, 2008

No viable opportunities on Thursday

————————————————————————————————-

Friday, Nov 28, 2008

No viable opportunities on Friday

————————————————————————————————-

Well that’s my forecasts and timing windows for this week, should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

Week of Nov 17 – Nov 21, 2008

Leave a comment

High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

11:46AM

Last Saturday, Nov 15, 2008 a gathering of the world leaders took place vowing to fight global recession. Now while the assembling of the worlds major powers is impressive, it looks to me that their bark is far louder than their bite. No action steps were made and if ever there will be, formailization of anything will be sometime April when President Obama officially takes office and the world leaders convene again. Meanwhile, the US will still have to take the lead with the on going re-structuring plans like TARP (which right now is being pulled every which way) as ground zero for this whole financial downturn really started in the US.

Jobs and the increasing fear of a much deeper recession is still a major worry and consumer spending will most likely fall in December which is traditionally a peak shopping month for consumers around the world (Christmas shopping). This high possibility will increase the fear of a world wide slowdown and inflationary pressures and Oil will be closely watched. Oil will continue to decline. Some analysts are predicting a US$30 / barrel oil, I believe it will hit 40 before the year ends. As such the USD will continue to rise especially against CAD. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves right now:

Here are the pairs and the timing windows I’ll be cooking this week.

Monday – Nov 17, 2008

Get ready to Buy USD/CAD on Monday Nov 17, 2008

The fundamental reason:

The USD will continue to strengthen as investors continue to unload their non-cash investments in exchange for the USD, Oil on the other hand will continue to fall even as OPEC cuts production, there is simply no room right now to speculate on another run to $100 / barrel oil. Technically, this pair is in a long term up trend with the hourlies showing a possible set up as I write this (Sunday).

Timing Window:

Get ready to Buy USD/CAD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10AM – 3PM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 2AM – 7AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 9PM – 2AM (This is GMT-5)

———————————————————————————————–

Get ready to Buy EUR/GBP on Monday Nov 17, 2008

The fundamental reason:

Eurozone trade balance comes out at 6PM Phil. Time, while the trade balance in Europe is far from ideal, it will be better relative to it’s older brother in the United Kingdom. The best pair to trade for this news release will be the EUR/GBP

Timing Window:

Get ready to Buy EUR/GBP at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM – 11AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 12MN – 3AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 7PM – 10PM (This is GMT-5)

————————————————————————————————-

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY on Monday Nov 17, 2008

The fundamental reason:

The Meeting of the world leaders last Saturday was for the most part a photo opportunity which may have an adverse effect on the markets. I believe that the markets will use this as cause for another panic driven sell off in the Dow when the North American Session opens.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM – 3PM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 12MN – 8AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 7PM – 2AM (This is GMT-5)

————————————————————————————————-

Tuesday – Nov 18, 2008

Get ready to Sell GBP/USD on Tuesday, Nov 18, 2008

The fundamental reason:

Consumer and retail price indices comes out at 5:30PM Philippine time which should show that inflationary pressures in the UK are dropping which will lead to more speculation of a further lowering of interest rates. Needless to say however, the GBP is likely to drop further as there is absolutely no good news at the moment for the UK economy. In some articles I’ve read, it has even gone to compare the UK economy to a possible Iceland (I don’t think it’s that bad though, but bad enough to scare people out of their pound holdings)

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell GBP/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 8AM – 11AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 12MN – 3AM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 7PM – 10PM (This is GMT-5)

————————————————————————————————-

Get ready to Sell NZD/USD on Tuesday, Nov 18, 2008

The fundamental reason:

Inflationary reports for the Kiwi in the form of Producer Price Index comes out at 5:45AM Philippine Time. This will show a lowering of price expectations which is good for the economy but bearish for the currency.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell NZD/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10PM – 3AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 2PM – 7PM (This is GMT)

New York Time: 9AM – 2PM (This is GMT-5)

————————————————————————————————-

Wednesday, Nov 19, 2008

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD on Wednesday, Nov 19, 2008

The fundamental reason:

Producer Price Index (Inflationary reports) for the Euro comes out at 3:00PM Philippine Time the next day Thursday. This will show a lowering of price expectations which is good for the economy but bearish for the currency.

Timing Window:

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD at these times should a Technical Set up or a Trading signal appear

Philippine Time: 10PM – 8AM (This is GMT+8)

London Time: 2PM – 12MN (This is GMT)

New York Time: 9AM – 7PM (This is GMT-5)

————————————————————————————————-

Thursday, Nov 20, 2008

No viable opportunities on Thursday

————————————————————————————————-

Friday, Nov 21, 2008

No viable opportunities on Friday

————————————————————————————————-

Well that’s my forecasts and timing windows for this week, should anything change I will update this post!

Monsterpips to All!

-Mark

Week of Nov 10 – Nov 14, 2008

Leave a comment

High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice.

November 9, 2008
4:34PM GMT+8 (All time stamps in this post are GMT+8 or China Time, unless otherwise specified)

Jobs and the expected layoffs in weeks to come continue to be the focus in the markets. Fear amongst workers in the industrial and housing sector continue. Now the US auto industry is trying to get concessions for a bailout as the contention is 1 out of every 10 jobs in America are from the auto industry. Will we see something from this? Everything is still up in the air but one thing remains certain, Job losses will get worse before it gets better. Markets will continue the sell off and the USD will continue to move up as the move to shore up cash reserves is still on going.

Looking at the weekly charts, no reversal signals are yet seen on the major pairings. Fundamentally though, there is really no good news out there at the moment to force investors to come back to the markets in full force. The Currency markets will be in a state of sideways / range trading for this week as there will be bad news (but almost expected news) to come. The long term trend bias however for the major currencies are: USD – up, JPY – up, EUR – down, GBP- down, AUD – down, NZD – down, CHF – down

So here’re the pairs that I’m cooking this week

Monday

Get ready to Sell GBP/USD

At 5:30PM UK PPI comes out which is expected to show declines in prices showing a slow down in inflation. Seeing that UK interest rates have a lot more room to cut compared to the US. The currency market will look at this report to jump start another sell off for the once mighty pound.
Timing Window: Get ready to short this pair anytime between 8 AM to 11AM Monday morning. That translates to 7PM to 10PM Sunday Evening US Eastern Standard Time. Should a technical set-up present itself on the Daily / hourly charts.

Tuesday

Get ready to Sell EUR/USD

At 6:00PM German and Euro ZEW survey comes out which should show a more pessimistic business sentiment for a few more weeks to come. Like the GBP, Euro interest rates have more room to cut compared to the US. Another leg down is expected to sell off the Euro in exchange for the USD again.
Timing Window: Get ready to short this pair anytime between 8AM to 11AM Tuesday Morning. That translates to 7PM to 10PM Monday Evening US Eastern Standard Time. Should a technical set-up present itself on the Daily / hourly charts.


Wednesday

Get ready to Sell GBP/USD

At 5:30PM Jobless claims for the UK comes out which is again going to be bearish.
Timing Window: Get ready to short this pair anytime between 8AM to 11AM Wednesday morning. 7PM to 10PM Tuesday Evening US Eastern Standard Time Should a technical set up present itself on the Daily / hourly charts.

Thursday

Get ready to Sell NZD/USD

At 5:45AM New Zealand Retail Sales comes out which is expected to be much worse than anticipated. Forcing another sell-off for the Kiwi Dollar.
Timing Window: Get ready to short this pair anytime between  Wed10PM to Thursday 3AM. Wed 9AM to 3PM Eastern should a technical set up present itself on the Daily / hourly charts.

Get ready to Buy USD/CAD

At 9:30PM, Canadian Int’l Merchandise Trade report comes out and is expected to be bearish. Oil prices which also drives the Canadian dollar is seen as ranging and not strongly trending up or down especially with the problems with the Auto industry world wide.
Timing Window: Get ready to short this pair anytime between Thursday 11AM to 3PM (Wed 10PM to 2AM Eastern)  should a technical set up present itself on the Daily / hourly charts.

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY

Also at 9:30PM, US Initial Jobless Claims and Trade Balance comes out. The only currency stronger than the USD at this point is the JPY so, this would be another opportunity to short this pair.
Timing Window: Get ready to short this pair anytime between 11AM to 3 PM (Wed 10PM to 2AM Eastern)  should a technical set up present itself on the Daily / hourly charts.

Friday

Get ready to Sell USD/JPY
At 9:30PM, US Advanced retail sales comes out which is expected to be bearish for the USD, so shorting USD/JPY once again would be a high probability trade.
Timing Window: Get ready to short this pair anytime between 11AM to 3PM  (Thurs 10PM to 2AM Eastern) should a technical set up present itself on the Daily / hourly charts.

Well that’s it for this week. Should anything change, I will update this post.

These are my views, I may be wrong, please follow at your own risk.

Monsterpips to All!
-Mark

http://www.timingyourtrade.com

Nov 6, 2008 A historic new US President

Leave a comment

High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice.

Nov 5, 2008

It’s all over the news but I just wanted to announce in the forum that the US has a historic new president in Barak Obama. The Euphoria of this event will continue within the week and based on what’s been happening this week, it is definite that the market has completely priced in the job losses coming out this Friday for Non-Farm Payrolls. As such, the USD will now continue up after a dip in the past few days. The Dow will continue to rally (at least until this week) Technically though the rally of all Non-USD majors is reaching resistance levels and is due to return back to trading within the channel.

Prudence however will always be advised.

Monsterpips to All!
-Mark

Week of Nov 3 – Nov 7, 2008

Leave a comment

High Risk Investment Warning: Trading foreign exchange and/or contracts for difference on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss in excess of your deposited funds and therefore, you should not speculate with capital that you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to trade you should carefully consider your objectives, financial situation, needs and level of experience. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading on margin. The content of this Website must not be construed as personal advice.

November 2, 2008
1:12PM

**Daylight Savings Time is now back to Standard time in New York which means the Philippines is now 13 hours ahead instead of the previous 12 hours. The times mentioned in all my forecasts are Philippine / China / Singapore time. For the new international members, please adjust your computer clock to GMT+8 so that you can follow my forecasts and signals.**

Jobs and Interest Rates are the theme for this week. Marquee events will be Australian, Euro and UK Interest rate decisions and US Non-Farm payroll reports. On the political front, the US elections will also affect the financial world this week. All events this week is expected to be bearish for all currencies including a slight dip in the USD. The only question is when should we start shorting them.

So here’s what I’m cooking for this week:

Monday

Get ready to sell GBP/USD

At 5:30PM UK PMI Manufacturing data comes out which is anticipated to be bearish and will give traders additional reason to short the pound before the rate announcement is made on Nov 6, 2008 Should there be a set up on the Daily charts and hourly charts, I’ll be shorting this pair anytime between 8 to 11AM Monday morning.

Get ready to sell USD/JPY

Then at 11PM US ISM data comes out and is expected to drop further as Chicago PMI also dropped. This will again increase the chances of a huge drop in employment numbers of the US when Non-Farm payrolls come out on Friday, Nov 7.  Should there be a set up on the Daily and hourly charts, I’ll be shorting this pair anytime between 11AM to 5PM Monday.

Neutral on AUD/USD

I would advise to stay away from trading AUD/USD as early Monday morning, Retail sales comes out then followed the next day by the interest rate decision which is expected to be cut by 0.5% basis points. Although the announcement are extremely bearish, there is not enough time to enter properly.

Tuesday

Get ready to sell EUR/USD

At 6PM Eur PPI data comes out. With Oil prices dropping, it is unlikely that this data will be good. Also, this will be the first glimpse of traders to see justification of a lowering of Euro interest rates come Nov 6, 2008. Should there be a set up on the Daily and hourly charts, I’ll be shorting this pair anytime between Monday evening to around 11AM Tuesday Morning.

Get ready to sell USD/JPY

US Factory orders comes out at 11PM Tuesday which many analysts expect to drop significantly. Slowing growth will be seen the most in this report. Now although the US is up against the Majors, the JPY is still more bullish than the USD and this will be a likely candidate to short for this news data. Should there be a set up on the Daily and hourly charts, I’ll be shorting this pair anytime between Monday evening to around 11AM Tuesday Morning.

Get ready to sell EUR/CHF

Whenever the Euro and the USD are likely to go down, EUR/CHF will also go down, this is a proven phenomenon due to currency correlations and the domino effect between the EUR and the USD. Should there be a set up on the Daily and hourly charts anytime between Monday evening to around 11 AM Tuesday, I’ll be shorting this pair as well.

Wednesday

Get ready to sell EUR/USD

At 6PM Wednesday evening, eurozone retail sales comes out and is expected to be very bearish. This is another opportunity to short the EUR/USD. If I have not yet gotten out of the Short EUR/USD trade the day before, I will short the pair again should there be a set up on the hourly charts between 8AM to 11AM Wednesday.

Get ready to sell NZD/USD

New Zealand change in employment reports come out very early on Thursday so, Wednesday evening for us would be the timing window to get in. Should there be a set-up on the Dailies and hourlies anytime Wednesday, I’ll most probably take the short trade.

Thursday & Friday

I would recommend to be out of the markets at this time as UK and Euro rate decisions will lead to huge volatility, Friday, the infamous Non-farm payroll report comes out which you do not want to be in the middle of.

Well that’s it for the week, should anything change, I will update this post.

These are my views, I may be wrong, please follow my recommendations at your own risk.

FYI – The next Master of the Minimum Contest will be November 15 to December 15 to give time for all members to have at least US$300 in their accounts. This will be the last contest for the year so hurry and join now!!!

Monsterpips to All!
-Mark

Older Entries Newer Entries